Overseas supply saw production cuts; aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short term [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Stadler is investing more than KZT14 billion, around CHF25 million, to establish Central Asia’s first highly automated aluminum rail bodyshell production facility at its Astana plant in Kazakhstan. The expansion will add dedicated aluminum bodyshell welding and painting workshops, while local employees are being trained in aluminum welding and painting technologies at Stadler facilities in Europe. The expansion will deepen aluminum use in Kazakhstan’s railway manufacturing supply chain and support both domestic and export projects. The Astana plant currently has capacity of around 80-100 passenger railcars per year, while Stadler has a firm contract to supply 557 passenger coaches to Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) through 2030. With the new aluminum workshops and modernisation of existing facilities, output is expected to reach at least 100 railcars/year, with potential for up to 150 if additional orders are secured. Stadler has not disclosed the aluminum profile supplier for the Kazakhstan operation.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Russian aluminum producer Rusal is moving closer to developing a bauxite-to-alumina project in Kalimantan, with Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia saying the permitting process is now “almost final.” Rusal plans to develop an alumina processing facility using Indonesian bauxite together with domestic private-sector partners, although the identities of the partners have not yet been disclosed. The project’s capacity, investment value and exact location in Kalimantan have not yet been announced, as the feasibility study is still being finalised. President Prabowo Subianto previously said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 3 that Rusal would enter Indonesia “on a large scale” to develop processing facilities with Indonesian groups. Earlier discussions in February also saw Rusal representatives express interest in aluminum processing investment specifically in West Kalimantan, although it has not been confirmed that this is the same project.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] ADC12 market prices were mainly slightly lowered today, but the overall decline was relatively limited, reflecting that enterprises still hold certain support expectations on the cost side and are reluctant to make significant price concessions. On the demand side, downstream procurement overall maintained a just-in-time pace. Although some purchasing demand was released after prices pulled back, a clear restocking trend on dips has yet to form, and demand improvement in the traditional peak season remains relatively limited. Overall, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term, with focus on changes in raw material prices and whether September peak season demand can be further released.